Just found this great little exchange from an Australian TV show (thanks Grist!) Tim Flannery (climate realist) and Adam Shand (climate skeptic) have this exchange :

Tim Flannery: No one can predict the weather three months ahead, that’s absolutely true. But if I asked you if January next year was likely to be warmer than June this year, what would you say?

Adam Shand: I’d have no idea!

TF: You’d say yes because that’s what we always see. Summers are warmer than winter. And in terms of predicting general global trends, that exactly the sort of science that we’re doing. It’s not like predicting the weather on a certain day three months out, it’s like predicting whether January is likely to be warmer than June.

AS: But that’s just an assumption, we sort of assume that summer is hotter than winter.